COVID-19 Pushes Female Unemployment Rate Higher than Male’s for First Time in 30 years

I plotted seasonally adjusted employment data for Canada from 1986 to April 2020. Here’s what I found.

Unemployment since 1976

Due to COVID-19, the number of employed people in Canada dropped almost 16% from February to April.

Fig.1: Population and Employment in Canada from 1976 to 2020.

In April 2020 the unemployment rate reached 13.0% — the second highest unemployment after December 1982. The recession of the late 70s/early 80s was the worst since the post WWII period. (More on Wikipedia.) The other notable peak was in the early 90s — a recession that followed the end of the Cold War. In comparison, the economic downturn of the Global Financial Crisis of 2009 didn’t seem that bad.

Fig.2: Unemployment Rate in Canada from 1976 to 2020.

Female vs Male Unemployment

For the period of 1976 to 1980 the unemployment rate for females was almost 2% higher than for males. But as unemployment spiked in the early 80s, that gap closed significantly. During the 1980s, female unemployment was on average only 0.4% higher than male’s.

Fig.3: Female vs Male Unemployment Rates in Canada from 1976 to 2020.

Then during the recession of the early 1990s, male unemployment surpassed female’s. Since then, except for a few months in late 1997, male unemployment has been higher than female’s. Because of COVID-19, this 30 year trend might come to an end. Indeed female unemployment in April reached 13.4% compared to 12.6% for males.

Fig.4: Female vs Male Unemployment Rates in Canada, focus on 1980 to 2000.

Fig.5: Average Unemployment Rate in Canada by Sex from 1976 to 2020.

Unemployment by Age Group

Individuals under 24 have the highest unemployment rates through the decades, followed by those between 25 and 54. Those over 55 have the lowest unemployment rates but the gap between this age group and those between 25 and 54 completely closed in the 2010s.

Fig.6: Unemployment Rate in Canada by Age Group from 1976 to 2020.

Fig.7: Average Unemployment Rate in Canada by Decade and Age Group from 1976 to 2020.

Unemployment by Province

Unemployment rates varied considerably by province. Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Atlantic provinces had the highest unemployment rates over the decades whereas the Prairies had the lowest. All provinces saw an increase in unemployment in April 2020 except for Prince Edward Island.

Fig.8: Unemployment Rates in Canada by Province from 1976 to 2020.

In April 2020, Quebec’s unemployment rate jumped from 7.0% to 17.0% — by far the greatest provincial increase. It is now the province with the highest unemployment rate. Another notable increase was in Alberta, surely exacerbated by the oil crisis.

Fig.8: Average Unemployment Rates in Canada by Province and Decade from 1976 to 2020.

Provincial Female vs Male Unemployment

In the Atlantic provinces, male and female unemployment rates have diverged since the 1980s. Similarly in NL where the unemployment rate for males increased to 20.5% in April 2020, a much greater increase than for females. Considering historically high unemployment numbers, Prince Edward Island is weathering the COVID-19 storm with male unemployment lower than the averages of previous decades.

Fig.8: Average Unemployment Rates in Canada by Province, Decade, and Sex from 1980 to 2020.

An upcoming analysis on employment by industry will help explain the varying impact of COVID-19 on provinces and sexes.

The question on everyone’s mind: How long before unemployment rates bounce back? If previous shocks are any indication (see Figure 2), it could be years.

Annex

Explore the data here.

Data source: Statistics Canada. Table 14–10–0287–01 Labour force characteristics, monthly, seasonally adjusted and trend-cycle, last 5 months